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Predictions of severe weather conditions across the Atlantic have been blamed for diesel price rises, but Chris Tindall discovers that the problem lies much closer to home. For the majority of haulage operators battling to stay profitable following recent diesel price hikes, the reasons behind soaring fuel costs is possibly of limited importance. Last week Commercial Motor reported how bulk diesel was now just a smidgen below its highest ever price, at 80.78p/l, according to the Road  Haulage Association. The finger of blame was pointed in the direction of the Gulf of Mexico, where predictions of a tropical storm caused 25% of production to be shut down when Shell and BP evacuated workers.

But for those of us wondering how hurricane forecasts in the eastern gulf were managing to batter your business' bottom line here in Blighty, the answer is, at least according to Retail Motor Industry Federation director Ray Holloway, they're not. "Crude price is not a factor at the moment," he explains. "A number of factors have come together: the switch of production to heating oil at the beginning of September to prepare for the winter, and also we are running very tight on diesel due to production problems in European refineries. There's been a squeeze on available pick up."

The UK relies on refineries in Europe to provide almost  75% of our gasoline petrol. Holloway adds: "The US used to buy our surplus petrol and we would buy their surplus diesel. But now the Americans are switching to diesel in their private vehicles we are not able to by as much from the states." This means we now import most of the remainder from parts of the Mediterranean and Russia, which is of inferior quality and needs extra money spent on it in order to refine the fuel.

So, blame resides with our cold winters and no-one willing to stump up the £0.5bn needed to invest in European refineries to cope with demand. But the UK government must also shoulder much of the blame if it goes ahead with its announcement in March's Budget to slap 2p this week on fuel duty. Holloway insists the decision to raise duty comes from a desperate need to raise money rather than from any environmental pretensions.

A Freight Transport Association spokesman says: "It is very disappointing that, at a time of such turbulence in world oil prices, the Government has chosen to impose a further increase in costs for industry and motorists. Even at this late stage the Government should recognise the extent of the problem and reconsider imposing this unnecessary increase in fuel duty." The FTA adds that this rise will increase the annual operating costs of one 44-tonne artic by £870 to £35,600.

Owner driver Peter Johnson reckons it will cost him more than that: "I'm already paying 10p/l more than I was in January. My fuel bill for last year was £34,000. If things stay as they are it will be between £36,000 and £36,500 this year. It's a horrendous amount of money when you can't pass it on." Hauliers' concerns have led to the reformation of action group Transaction member Mike Presneill has already told Commercial Motor it is currently organising a national protest against duty rises.

Perhaps we should end as we started with another weather warning, this time from Holloway, who says diesel prices will come down during October after the current stretch on availability dies down. But unpredictable weather patterns much closer to home than the Gulf of Mexico might dash operators' hopes: "The only thing that's a problem is that we tend to get a cold snap at the end of October and beginning of November," he warns. "A cold snap could seriously affect diesel oil prices."