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The price of AdBlue could surge by a minimum of 8%, warns GreenChem, one of Europe's leading suppliers of the additive. The AdBlue-producing industry's costs have been hit by a sharp increase in the price of urea, from which the additive is made. "The price of our basic raw material has climbed steeply in recent weeks and we - and other suppliers - will have no alternative to passing the increase on to our customers," says GreenChem's founding chairman Tuen de Bruijn.

"However, the increase  in AdBlue pricing will be much lower than fleet operators are facing for their diesel, so the impact on operating costs will be very low. "Not only is the price increase over a period of time much smaller than that for diesel, but the consumption of AdBlue is still only very small in comparison to diesel. So from that perspective, SCR technology has become more and more attractive, despite the expected price of AdBlue."

David Cussans, operations director at MAN Truck and Bus, says: "The big problem for operators with SCR systems is that AdBlue is a commodity, so they're always going to be vulnerable to rising prices.

"EGR is totally free from that threat. I asked in the earliest days of Euro 4 SCR systems who could guarantee me the price of AdBlue in three to five years' time - with the latest announcements, my worries then look a little long-term now. The industry has more then enough cost issues facing it at the moment, and rising AdBlue prices only add to the  pressure on operators."

Urea prices have risen by 50% since the start of the year: this alone would lead to a €3 cents/litre increase (about 2.5p/litre), says to de Bruijn. This represents a minimum increase of 8%, with more to follow, he believes.

Yara raised the price of its Air 1 AdBlue product on 1 April this year and is set to announce a further as-yet-unspecified increase in June or July. The cost of urea is driven by the increased value of natural gas (a key element in the production of AdBlue), plus growing demand from bio-fuel suppliers and food producers worldwide, particularly in China.