News

Lead times long, despite economy

20 June 2008

Manufacturers have scotched suggestions of dramatic improvements in lead times, in spite of reports of uncertainty in the wider economy and rising fuel costs affecting new vehicle orders. "The situation is easing a little and has been doing so for a couple of months, but it's not a radical change," says Ian Norwell, PR manager for commercial vehicles at Mercedes-Benz. "It's not going to go from more than 52 weeks to 16 weeks."

Lead times for large tractive units remain over a year, he  adds. According to Dave Cussans, director of operations for MAN, the situation remains constant. "For heavy trucks, lead times are the same as they have been for the past four months, that's to say 14 to 15 months."

Both manufacturers maintain they have been keeping a very close eye for early indicators of a fall in demand and have so far seen no particular cause for concern. "We're obviously aware of the economic indicators, of the euro-pound exchange rate and its impact on our cost base, and of the escalating fuel prices that are affecting our customers," says Cussans. "There are a number of fundamentals that mean we have to be cautious, but at the moment the order book remains healthy, there are reasonable activity levels and we have good customer relations."

Norwell is similarly sanguine, even in the face of rumours that 40% of all orders in Spain and Portugal have been cancelled. "We've seen no anecdotal evidence of other European markets cancelling orders. As a manufacturer,  we have mid-term plans to increase production and these will remain. We take a European view and there's sufficiently strong demand for plans for this ramped-up production not to be turned off."

The latest registration figures from the SMMT also suggest UK demand remains high, with trucks leading the way on the back of registrations up 23% in May. "Buoyant truck registrations continue in 2008 and strong orderbooks suggest the trend is firm for the year," says Paul Everitt, SMMT chief executive. "Van registrations for the year to May are up too, although more modestly, as volumes are already at record levels. We expect these order and registration trends to hold over the next quarter."


Paul Howard
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