Demand for rail freight will double by 2030, according to a study by the Freight Transport Association (FTA) and Rail Freight Group (RFG). According to the forecasts, which were calculated using the GB Freight Model used by the DfT:
James Hookham, FTA policy director, says the growth will come from more trade with Continental Europe and beyond, plus use of rail to and from new rail-connected warehouses. He adds: "Rail will play an increasingly prominent role in moving containers to and from ports, and we anticipate an increasing demand from many sectors of industry seeking to reduce their use of congested road networks. Continued investment in the rail network is vital to sustain trade and the economy."
The survey predicts potential shortfalls in capacity on many routes by 2030, including the West Coast main line, Crewe to Glasgow, London, Tilbury and Southend, North London lines and the Channel Tunnel to London line. It also calls for a full upgrade of the Felixstowe-Peterborough-Nuneaton direct route.
However, Mike Ham, rail business development manager
for Massey Wilcox Transport and the Avonmouth Rail Freight Terminal, says it is "beyond his comprehension" how changes in the market by the year 2030 can be predicted now. He adds: "With the environmental benefits and the cost of fuel, rail freight should be winning hands-down, but in our experience it is not. Far from it, the trend for domestic movements is going the other way."
Ham explains that in 2002 his company won a contract to move paper from one side of the country to the other by rail, at night, but the goods have now been moved back to being transported by road. "Why? Because the manufacturer says rail costs are no longer financially viable," he says.
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