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The EC's preferred Euro 6 engine emission standard will increase fuel consumption by 8%, according to current DfT-commissioned estimates from engineering consultancy Ricardo. This figure is much worse than the EC's estimate of 2% to 3%.

Using a 12-litre, six-cylinder engine at Euro 5 as the baseline, Ricardo's research reveals that upgrading that engine to meet the EC's preferred standard makes it not only less fuel-efficient, but also more expensive to build and to fit after treatment.  It is generally accepted that a Euro 6 engine will combine both SCR and EGR technology.

Ricardo's cost estimates for the upgrade to Euro 6 are £2,100 on a rigid and £3,833 on an artic. The EC has suggested that its estimated fuel-consumption penalty can be ignored because it will be offset by other technological improvements before the Euro 6 introduction date in 2013/2014. Neither the DfT nor the FTA agree.

"The EC's prediction may prove to be an accurate one, but the basis for it appears insufficiently robust for us to be able to accept and use it," says the DfT. "The Ricardo report has to be considered in our impact assessment because it represents the only position that does not involve a significant amount of speculation." The DfT notes that while the ongoing trend among HGVs for improved fuel consumption may well continue and will help reduce the penalty, "we are cautious about claiming the trend will continue at a particular rate".

In the FTA's latest briefing  note, head of engineering policy Andy Mair expresses the same view and adds: "The trade-off between air quality improvements and fuel savings has shifted significantly as a result of the rapid increase in oil prices. What might have been considered an acceptable commercial penalty for improved emissions in 2007 when oil prices were in the region of $60/barrel may not be as clear cut with prices at $120/barrel."

Of course, any fuel consumption penalty means more CO2 emissions. Furthermore, the FTA and DfT agree that any move by the EC to push for an earlier date of Euro 6 adoption should be resisted.

A Mercedes-Benz spokesman says: "Ricardo has a strong reputation, so these figures are clearly of concern. We are working hard to minimise any impact that Euro 6 will have on fuel consumption. Only as we get nearer to 2014 will we discover how successful we have been." The government is consulting on the issue: email simon.davies@dft.gsi.gov.uk by 17 September with your views. FTA members should express their views by 10 September to amair@fta.co.uk.