For now at any rate. But the future is looking increasingly hairy. Volvo’s Leif Johansson is now forecasting a 40 per cent drop in the US market during the first half of next year, although he is still relatively upbeat about European business, arguing that it will remain relatively constant through 2007.

Over in Bellevue, Paccar is adopting a slightly more rose tinted view of things, with a worst-case scenario of a 37.5 per cent dip in US/Canadian Class 8 business, and a best case of a 27 per cent decline. Europe is seen as either remaining constant – best case – or dropping 13 per cent – worst case.

But Volvo has reported that its order book for US Class 8 vehicles is down by 58 per cent on last year. That sort of information isn’t so readily available from Paccar, but given the similarities in their projections for next year’s Class 8 market, we’re confident in assuming that it must be working on a similar number.

Over 52 per cent of Paccar’s third quarter income accrued from business within the US and Canada. Volvo’s exposure to NAFTA – i.e. the US, Canada and Mexico – is 31.5 per cent. If forward orders are down below 50 per cent at the moment, then this is an obvious talking point. Paccar is looking at a revenue depletion of 50 per cent of 50 per cent of its current business – so $6371.2 / £3398.53 million – its nine month US/Canadian revenue to date is – on current form –likely to dip below $3500 / £1866.97 million in the same period next year. For Volvo – which generated $7685.57 /£4101 million over the first nine months of this year, such a drop would result in 2007 figures of $3889.72 / £2072.62 million.

This is nasty. But it also suggests that if the US market proves a bust next year, then it is to the EU that the OEMs will be looking for shelter. Of course, the emerging markets exist, but we wonder how well placed the European OEMs are to take advantage of – for example –the booming Indian market.

Later on this week, both DC and Fiat will make their announcements. Fiat – or Iveco – is not exposed to the US, but DC is eyebrow deep in the place c/o Freightliner. Operating profit for the DC Truck Group is expected at €467.5 / $587.59 / £313.49 million from €354 / $444.89/£237.33 million, whilst Fiat seems to do no wrong at the moment.

But it’s becoming increasingly clear that the US market is set to do serious damage to the globalised truck business next year. In sum, the greater the exposure, the greater the risk, and it’s going to be interesting to see how the landscape looks once the upturn begins.