There’s an interesting big dog, bigger dog, no dog thing going on here. A couple of weeks ago, SM described Fiat’s commitment to Iveco as unwavering. However, the restructuring of the Fiat Group to provide separate businesses as opposed to separate business units does open the divestment door a little more.

And so the question to ponder is this. Would Iveco – or Fiat – want to be the biggest dog in a merger? Or would it cast Iveco adrift?

We’re going to stick with our forecast Iveco-MAN-Navistar scenario here, and make one or two assumptions. A merger such as this would look very good; a global footprint, a simplification of product range and plenty of volume.

But VW would have something to say about the MAN deal. It has a fistful of the German OEM’s stock certificates, and, as such, would get a place at the table.

But VW has to do something with its Latin American truck business – what there is of it. Iveco is nicely placed in Latin America, and, there is also the matter of the Fiat-Tata alliance to contemplate, something also being made manifest in Brazil.

So we see no place for VW here. It is – in terms of shareholding – a big dog. In practise, it’s a no dog.

So any possible merger is likely to be against VW’s wishes. Meaning, we assume, a bit of horse trading between Turin and Wolfsburg.

Marchionne has lucked out here. He has the opportunity not only to create a global powerhouse out of what is currently a regional player, but he also has the opportunity to do it on his terms. Navistar is one step from an Ebay listing, and despite the protestations that will no doubt issue forth from Munich, MAN has been reduced to observer status.

Will VW hold onto its MAN stake? We think there is still a future to be had between it and Scania, but the MAN deal is a dead dog. Watch those shareholdings; if VW exits MAN, then Iveco-Navistar-MAN look a shoe-in.