Caterpillar is the easiest of these three to consider doomed. It’s very difficult to see quite how a Tier 1 supplier with no captive OEM can hope to survive going forwards. Cummins is in a happy position because it boasts a technology – EGR – that, to our mind is far better suited to the North American market than is SCR, and, if it can get its head around this fact, looks set to profit. But Caterpillar – we can’t see it as things stand.

But then the rumours started. Caterpillar to buy Navistar. This is an industry in which rumours are a common currency, and so, whilst there seems to be more chance of CAT buying NAVZ.PK, we stuck this particular notion on the side and continued to plan for the wake.

Then International chose the Chicago Auto Show – a car-based trade show – in order to launch its new Lonestar product. Odd, we thought – not exactly an obvious choice for a launch venue.

Word then reaches us that International dealers are under some form of gag order. The nature of a gag order means that we don’t know what it is that they cannot speak about, because – guess what – they’re not speaking.

And then, anonymous comments from within Caterpillar tell us straight; the company is on the verge of announcing a bid – agreed or otherwise, though we suspect the former – for Navistar. An announcement seems likely at either Conexpo or Mid America – a fact that may explain why International chose to launch the Lonestar in Chicago rather than Louisville or Las Vegas.

Caterpillar is certainly big enough to swallow up Navistar. What MAN thinks about all of this – somehow we can’t see the MaxxForce experiment lasting – remains to be seen, but it would mean a big loss of volume for the Germans. Caterpillar’s Construction Equipment footprint might also make for interesting synergies in both China and India too.

Now that there seems to be no chance of any JV between CAT and PACCAR – a rumour that did the rounds ad infinitum last year – our yellow friends have to do something. It’s shit or get of the pot time, and, as Dan Ustian never tires of telling us – Navistar is up for sale.

Watch this space.