Most European truck stocks have been dropping fairly hard over the past couple of weeks, and now we also hear that European freight brokers are raising prices.
This seems to suggest that the latter group are now all about protecting margins in a downturn, and leads us to suspect that it's game over for European truck demand for a while.
What is difficult to establish is quite how a falling European market is going to coexist with a North American market that still shows no sign of life. Those OEMs tied to both - in order of risk we'd suggest Paccar, AB Volvo and Daimler - are going to have a serious job on their hands over the next few quarters.
For Paccar, things look to be especially grim. It is increasingly dependant upon European demand and a strong €uro in order to shore up its North American business. If Europe does drop hard - and we suspect that the fourth quarter of 2008 is going to prove to be very bloody indeed, then Paccar's health is going to take a turn for the worse.
The assorted blatherings of those who point to Eastern Europe as underpinning the rest of the European market need to be taken with a substantial pinch of salt. We're already seeing some signs of softening demand in the accession countries, and a more general European economic downturn isn't going to help.
The European markets have had a good run. But now it's time for a change.