Goldman's view is thus: "We upgrade ARM from Neutral to Buy and add it to the Americas Conviction List. US Class 8 truck orders have bottomed and we believe investor attention will start shifting towards prospects for a 2009 pre-buy ahead of new emissions regulations in 2010 - highlighting ARM, a direct beneficiary of increased Class 8 truck sales. Our positive view is in sync with our Attractive coverage view on the truckers which we see continuing to benefit from rising truck demand following the long freight recession of 2006-'07. ARM has traded in sympathy with truckers for much of the last 3 years and we believe will continue to do so as the year evolves."

We're inclined to disagree. There doesn't seem much sign of an upswing in US consumer demand, and the issue of diesel cost is now beginning to have a direct impact upon not just truck demand, but operator solvency. The likelihood of a 2009 upswing prior to the implementation of EPA 10 seems slim to none, and we fail to see where the rising truck demand in the US is likely to come from.

Much of ARM's strategy - at least a third of it at any rate - is predicated on Asian growth, and we are already beginning to see signs that the Indian truck market is beginning to cool. European growth looks likely to be absent next year, and whilst the Russian market still looks to be fairly buoyant, at the core of ARM's predicament is the fact that it produces commodity products in an industry that is fast embracing a verticalised structure.