We've held off from discussing Daimler's proposed tie-up with Chinese OEM Beiqi Foton for a number of reasons.
The long running saga has been dissected fairly comprehensively elsewhere on this blog, and, moreover, Daimler's dalliance with KamAZ, is, to our mind, rather more interesting. As too, it must be said, are the rumours surrounding stake-building within Daimler itself. But Beiqi isn't going to go away.
European involvement with the Chinese Commercial Vehicle industry has not always been comfortable; witness the development of Chinese OEM Shaanxi's business in South Africa, which has, as its beachhead, the Sinofied F2000, built with its JV partner MAN. MAN too has something of an interest in South Africa, and competing against what is effectively its own product must give the folk in Munich good reason to feel a touch miffed.
AB Volvo has also had its leg lifted high by its Chinese JV partner, China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation. Imagine the delight experienced by those in Gothenburg who, having just signed off on a €100 million investment for a plant in Kaluga, Russia, noted a marked eagerness on the part of CNHTC to market its HOWO product on the same patch. The news that CNHTC is looking to negotiate a JV in Russia must have cheered the Swedes up yet further. At some point, presumably, AB Volvo will write an alimony cheque, and begin the process once more with Dongfeng via Nissan Diesel. Plus ça change, we suspect. In sum, one does business in China by a very different set of rules.
So what does Daimler get for its (likely) trouble? Access to the world's largest single market, yada yada, burgeoning middle class yada yada, opportunity to source components at the right price etc etc ad nauseam and so on.
Cool. Is there any non-Chinese truck manufacturer currently operating in China in such a fashion such as those same operations have a positive impact upon the balance sheet? Not that we can see.
On August 4th, and according to the Japanese newspaper The Daily Yomiuri, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (insert caveat of choice here) declared that the Chinese economy's 'dependency rate on foreign economies' exceeded 60 per cent. In other words, China's double-digit expansion is based more-or-less entirely upon the economies of Europe and the US, and, more pertinently, consumers in the same buying stuff. Given that we don't have much of a problem finding a parking space in either Middle England or Middle America at the moment, those same consumers would seem to be staying at home. So you can take your 1.3 billion and your burgeoning bourgeoisie and go back to your abacus.
And moreover, in a week's time, the nuisance that is the Olympics will be over. For the past few days, the eyes of the world - or rather, those eyes that derive utility from watching synchronised diving - have been upon China. Everything is very nice, and an estimated $40 billion has been spent on making it so.
When it's over, and the flame passes to Boris Johnson - and the tax liability to the rest of us UK taxpayers - what happens then? We can't see another $40 billion being spent to finish the job off.
We are suspicious of most things, and pessimistic about just about everything, and we regard this to be an entirely appropriate approach to adopt in China. On our first visit there, in 1996, we noted a large number of advertisements for mobile 'phones. The place is now thick with them. Good for Motorola, not so good for a regime that wants to keep a lid on things.
At some point in the future, China will go pop. It will be a loud pop, and the fallout will probably hit us all. But for those invested there, it won't be so much a pop as a very loud bang.