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The Carlos and Oleg Hour: Thoughts on Volvo, GAZ and Renault SA.


We read Neil Winton's views pertaining to Renault SA - go here for the full article in the Detroit News - with ill-concealed glee. After all, we live in pessimistic times; the glass is not just half empty, but chipped, cracked and gathering dust, whilst the dishwasher exited its Five Year warranty last week and has dumped three gallons of water on the kitchen floor. Things are not good at all. And for Renault, they're particularly challenging.


Anyway. Winton refers to the views of Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who argues that the margin targets, issued recently by Renault SA, and which see profit margins up to six per cent by 2009 would appear to be dependant upon restructuring.  S&P Credit Analyst Barbara Castellano argues that: "(The outlook revision) reflects increasing uncertainty on Renault's ability to maintain sound cash generation and to avoid a pronounced weakening of its financial ratios." Credit Suisse are just plain nasty: "(Renault's) guidance lacks credibility" is its view. How rude.

Whatever. It would appear Carlos Ghosn has also been taking his turn at the pooch that is the European automotives sector, and which may now be observed as being imperially screwed. People think that Renault's numbers don't add up. Two plus two equals four, two plus two plus a Gallic corporate shrug also equals four. Not six. This is the problem.

And so to the solution. Restructuring seems to be the word of the moment, and we can think of no better asset of which to be rid of than Renault SA's large stake in AB Volvo. We know that we've been down this road before, but hang on with us.

Renault wants to be Europe's most profitable car company - an aim, at present, which is analogous to a desire to being Winwick's premier ballerina - with sales of 800,000 units per year, and the aforementioned margin of six per cent.

Key words here are car and company. We do not see any real evidence of Renault SA leveraging its stake in AB Volvo in terms that might aid the former in its pursuit of European vehicular supremacy. So, take the money and run would seem to be the best advice, although no doubt McKinsey's would add a few months to that sentence.

But the suggestion demands that there is someone with some money who is prepared to join in the game. Hello Oleg; Mr Deripaska has a supposed $28 billion in the kitty, along with a reputation for being - shall we say - businesslike. He doesn't appear to be anyone's fool, and, as such, must have winced when his name was linked with the acquisition of the Hummer brand. To even voice the suggestion that someone might be interested in paying anything for Hummer would seem to verge on actionable, and so we'll walk away from this one, pausing only to suggest that GM may be on offer for a whole lot less in the months to come. But we digress, and so back to Volvo.

Deripaska, GAZ and AB Volvo already have links; think licenced Renault engines. GAZ has made no secret of it wishes to sit at the big table in terms of trucks, and, leaving every other comment about the growth potential of the Russian market on one side for the moment, organic growth ain't going to get him - them - it - there. But a 20 per cent piece of AB Volvo might just cause some pulses to quicken some.

We know, we've said it all before, but surely here is a situation in which company A has an asset and a need for money, and company B has some money, and the need for an asset. Supply and Demand as one Guy Steele-Bodger explained to us in Lower Sixth Economics. Generally speaking it's a good thing all round.

Will it happen? We don't know, but we think that it's far more likely now than ever before. Logic would suggest that money would be better invested in Magic Beans than the automotive business at present, a factor reflected in share prices across the board, and which means but one thing.

Bargains.

 


 



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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on August 22, 2008 5:29 PM.

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